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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2013 > Jun > Jun 26

Re: Scattered Not Unified

From: William Treurniet <wtreurniet.nul>
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 2013 08:31:50 -0400
Archived: Wed, 26 Jun 2013 09:12:24 -0400
Subject: Re: Scattered Not Unified

>From: Jason Gammon <boyinthemachine.nul>
>To: post.nul
>Date: Mon, 24 Jun 2013 01:12:24 -0400 (EDT)
>Subject: Re: Scattered Not Unified

>>From: William Treurniet <wtreurniet.nul>
>>To: post.nul
>>Date: Sat, 22 Jun 2013 10:00:37 -0400
>>Subject: Re: Scattered Not Unified


>>My suggestion that false memories should fall away over time is
>>based on the law of large numbers. That is, "the average of the
>>results obtained from a large number of trials should be close
>>to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more
>>trials are performed."

>>In your example from Jacobs' work, if only one person
>>encountered beings with faces hidden, and many other people
>>never see hidden faces, then we might conclude in the long run
>>that beings don't hide their faces. The lone report about hidden
>>faces would be an outlier and could be ignored, even without
>>being labeled confabulation.

>You can't have your cake and eat it too. You can't embrace
>hypnosis when it seemingly verifies your beliefs and then reject
>it when it does not. Pick one or the other.

I don't see the connection between the last comment about my
beliefs and the proposal that the law of large numbers would
minimize the effect of occasional confabulations. That is, the
Bayesian subjective degree of belief should change to account
for new evidence and should asymptote to the real value as the
sample size increases. Of course, if a confabulation is
consistent over time, perhaps because of a researcher's bias,
then such a process will still lead to an incorrect belief.

In any case, nowhere have I embraced hypnosis for memory
recovery. My beliefs, such as they are, come mainly from reports
of abductees' conscious memories as well as physical evidence
accompanying suspected abductions. Recovered memories fall into
a different category for me because expectations are brought to
a hypnosis session by all involved.


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