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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2011 > Feb > Feb 17

Re: Question For A. J. Gevaerd On Trindade

From: Michael Tarbell <mtarbell.nul>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2011 14:13:21 -0700
Archived: Thu, 17 Feb 2011 08:35:16 -0500
Subject: Re: Question For A. J. Gevaerd On Trindade


>From: Greg Paloma <fractalmaze.nul>
>To: post.nul
>Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2011 13:07:25 -0700
>Subject: Re: Question For A. J. Gevaerd On Trindade

>>From: Michael Tarbell <mtarbell.nul>
>>To:  post.nul
>>Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2011 17:20:22 -0700
>>Subject: Re: Question For A. J. Gevaerd On Trindade

>>Not having the familiarity with this case that Martin Shough and
>>others on the UpDates list do, I can at least submit there is
>>one readily available published estimate to be found, namely in
>>the Navy report

>>see http://www.nicap.org/newevidarticle.htm

>>that followed Bacellar's briefing to the Navy High Command on 27
>>Jan 1958, in which it is stated explicitly that "The photographs
>>were taken in no more than 30 seconds".

>>If there are any controversies surrounding the authenticity of
>>this report, I am not aware of them, although it does seem to
>>have a somewhat odd provenance.

>I would agree that the lack of negatives brings about some
>serious concerns. Especially, when considering their importance!

Actually, my comment was in reference to the provenance of the
Navy report itself. See my comments below on the negatives.

>>It is straightforward in Photoshop to place corresponding areas
>>of photos #1 and #4 side-by-side and adjust the brightness and
>>contrast to enhance the cloud patterns. I must concede that I
>>would not expect the indicated degree of cloud pattern evolution
>>in a 30 second period, or even twice that.

>Scenario 1: The same cloud group evolving over time.
>Scenario 2: The group of clouds is completely or partially
>replaced by a new set, while considering potentials for both
>their decay or growth.

>I would agree... I'd done this already and get a range of 3
>+/- 1 minute based upon, broadly encompassing, several detailed
>scenarios. Perhaps I will publish?

I personally cannot make any confident correspondence between
the respective cloud features in Photos #1 and #4, and hence
favor Scenario 2. In the area of actual overlap, it appears to
require an obscured background pattern becoming visible after
the disappearance of a more diffuse foreground.

Martin covered this ground pretty thoroughly and his results
convince me that entirely plausible meteorological conditions
could produce such an effect on short (~1 - 2 minute)
timescales. I would further suppose that under more unusual (but
not extraordinary) conditions, several tens of seconds might be
sufficient.

My primary concern with the latter scenario, aside from the
coincidence of unusual weather accompanying an unusual incident,
is that such dramatically unsettled atmospheric conditions would
have been noted in witness accounts of the incident itself. But
perhaps such conditions are more commonplace at Trindade than I
realize.

<snip>

>Note, that he didn't immediately provide the negatives and took
>them home for a while, which again brings up issues with their
>genuine provenance. Esentialy, mistakes were made and now we're
>discovering them.

The fact that Barauna retained the negatives after the incident
is noteworthy indeed. In fact, I find it one of the more curious
aspects of the whole affair... almost any hoax scenario I can
imagine depends critically on Barauna somehow keeping the
negatives. The fact that he apparently had confidence in this
outcome is as remarkable as the fact that it actually came to
pass.

Of course, it could simply be the result of collusion between
Barauna and Bacellar, but frankly that strains credulity as
well, at least from my limited familiarity with the case. I
defer to others with more knowledge of their relationship.

>It would really help if we actually knew which way the clouds
>were moving and at what speed. From inspection, they appear to
>be moving SW to W - I see evidence of cloud drag (Slant) up
>their vertical column. I will see if I can get typical upper air
>movement/soundings during that time of year. Perhaps, there's a
>stable pattern this far out in the South Atlantic. I believe
>this may be true. I already left a few messages at NOAA for
>better leads. The cloud ceiling would also be nice to obtain.

Again, if you haven't already, see Martin's analysis at:

http://www.martinshough.com/aerialphenomena/trindade/clouds.htm

although if translation is needed, the results from Google may
not be satisfactory. Certainly going the other way around (e.g.,
translating the www.ufo.com.br site into English) results in
substantial amounts of gibberish.


Mike






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