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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2004 > Feb > Feb 19

Re: Off-Season UFOs - Hatch

From: Larry Hatch <larryhatch.nul>
Date: Wed, 18 Feb 2004 14:32:50 -0800
Fwd Date: Thu, 19 Feb 2004 12:32:59 -0500
Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs - Hatch

>From: Bruce Maccabee <brumac.nul>
>To: <ufoupdates.nul>
>Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2004 22:17:44 -0500
>Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs

>>From: Larry Hatch <larryhatch.nul>
>>To: ufoupdates.nul
>>Date: Sun, 15 Feb 2004 16:44:10 -0800
>>Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs


>>On the same map above, compare Arizona to New Mexico. Areas are
>>about the same (NM slightly larger than AZ) but AZ has less than
>>one quarter the filtered sightings counts per 1000 population as
>>New Mexico.

>>I don't see any obvious demographic reason for this.

>Many years ago when I and the world were young (early 1970s) I
>was studing the statistical data in Project Blue Book Special
>Report #14. In that publication they present, without comment, a
>map showing the USA with grid areas which are 1 degree squares,
>i.e., latitude (horizontal) and longitude (vertical) lines
>spaced 1 degree apart. Inside each grid square they listed the
>number of sightings. I got it into my head that it would be
>"neat" to use this to correlate with the population. So I
>embarked on a many week long process of estimating the
>population in each grid square. Unfortunately, population
>estimates in such accessible sources as the yearly alamacs are
>given by county within a stae, not by 1 degree squares. So I had
>much pain and suffering in estimating the population in 1 degree
>squares from data on the population in counties. But I did it,
>and reasonably well, I think. Then I located all the military
>air bases in the USA in the 1950 time frame.

>Now I was able to plot the number of sightings vs population. I
>found negligible correlation... in fact the "noise" overwhelmed
>any correlation. As I recall, the mst prominent example of non-
>correlation was the comparison of the square with Albuquerque NM
>in it with Washington, DC or New York or LA, etc. (This was long
>before the Uintah basin sightings were collected). In this case
>ABQ, with an estimated 200-300,000 people had the same number or
>a greater number of sightings than the areas with ten times its

>I did find a sort of correlation, howver, between squares with
>Military Air Bases (MABs) and the nmber of sightings. The
>correlation was not strong, but it certainly appeared that there
>were more sightings in the squares with MABs than in the
>sightings without, regardless of the population. And one must
>keep in mind that many MABs were in the vicinity of large
>cities. This was published in a paper Scientific Investigation
>of Unidentified Flying Objects (an analysis of SR#14) by the
>Center for UFO Studies in the first and third issues of the
>Journal of UFO Studies.

Hello Bruce:

One caution here, one I'm sure you are aware of.

During the 40s - 60s, people would report small town sightings
to the nearest military base, often the closest Air Force Base
on the presumption they would be properly investigated <LOL>

Incautious compilers of sightings lists or catalogs would cite
the name of the _base_ instead of the little town, road or
whatever where the actual events took place!

This would tend to skew studies based on those catalogs making
Mil Bases look more like UFO magnets than they otherwise would.
I'm not suggesting that they aren't of course.

If this is so, it might partly explain why New Mexico shows over
_four times_ the sightings counts per 1000 population as
Arizona. Another cause could be 'investigator effect' .. Roswell
types digging for data in NM selectively, to the near exclusion
of Arizona.

The demographic argument looks fairly weak when you compare the
densely populated East Coast with the western states in general.
There, sightings over area are a better fit, but even that
deviates from the expected norm.


- Larry

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