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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2004 > Feb > Feb 18

Re: Off-Season UFOs - Maccabee

From: Bruce Maccabee <brumac.nul>
Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2004 22:17:44 -0500
Fwd Date: Wed, 18 Feb 2004 15:08:33 -0500
Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs - Maccabee


>From: Larry Hatch <larryhatch.nul>
>To: ufoupdates.nul
>Date: Sun, 15 Feb 2004 16:44:10 -0800
>Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs


>>From: Nick Pope <nick.nul>
>>To: <ufoupdates.nul>
>>Date: Sun, 15 Feb 2004 11:10:46 -0000
>>Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs

<snip>

>>We need to factor in data on population density. If more UFOs
>>are seen in a particular area, might it not reflect the fact
>>that there are more people there to see them? Indeed, the
>>results of my MOD study produced maps that seemed to reflect
>>this very point. More UFO reports came from in and around London
>>than from anywhere else, and there were similar clusters around
>>major conurbations.

>I have a routine in the database software that ranks states, the
>DC, and Canadian provinces/territories by raw sightings counts,
>same over population, and same over area. This isn't on my
>website yet, stay tuned.

>On the same map above, compare Arizona to New Mexico. Areas are
>about the same (NM slightly larger than AZ) but AZ has less than
>one quarter the filtered sightings counts per 1000 population as
>New Mexico.

>I don't see any obvious demographic reason for this.

Many years ago when I and the world were young (early 1970s) I
was studing the statistical data in Project Blue Book Special
Report #14. In that publication they present, without comment, a
map showing the USA with grid areas which are 1 degree squares,
i.e., latitude (horizontal) and longitude (vertical) lines
spaced 1 degree apart. Inside each grid square they listed the
number of sightings. I got it into my head that it would be
"neat" to use this to correlate with the population. So I
embarked on a many week long process of estimating the
population in each grid square. Unfortunately, population
estimates in such accessible sources as the yearly alamacs are
given by county within a stae, not by 1 degree squares. So I had
much pain and suffering in estimating the population in 1 degree
squares from data on the population in counties. But I did it,
and reasonably well, I think. Then I located all the military
air bases in the USA in the 1950 time frame.

Now I was able to plot the number of sightings vs population. I
found negligible correlation... in fact the "noise" overwhelmed
any correlation. As I recall, the mst prominent example of non-
correlation was the comparison of the square with Albuquerque NM
in it with Washington, DC or New York or LA, etc. (This was long
before the Uintah basin sightings were collected). In this case
ABQ, with an estimated 200-300,000 people had the same number or
a greater number of sightings than the areas with ten times its
population.

I did find a sort of correlation, howver, between squares with
Military Air Bases (MABs) and the nmber of sightings. The
correlation was not strong, but it certainly appeared that there
were more sightings in the squares with MABs than in the
sightings without, regardless of the population. And one must
keep in mind that many MABs were in the vicinity of large
cities. This was published in a paper Scientific Investigation
of Unidentified Flying Objects (an analysis of SR#14) by the
Center for UFO Studies in the first and third issues of the
Journal of UFO Studies.




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