From: Bruce Maccabee <brumac.nul> Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2004 22:17:44 -0500 Fwd Date: Wed, 18 Feb 2004 15:08:33 -0500 Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs - Maccabee >From: Larry Hatch <larryhatch.nul> >To: ufoupdates.nul >Date: Sun, 15 Feb 2004 16:44:10 -0800 >Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs >>From: Nick Pope <nick.nul> >>To: <ufoupdates.nul> >>Date: Sun, 15 Feb 2004 11:10:46 -0000 >>Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs <snip> >>We need to factor in data on population density. If more UFOs >>are seen in a particular area, might it not reflect the fact >>that there are more people there to see them? Indeed, the >>results of my MOD study produced maps that seemed to reflect >>this very point. More UFO reports came from in and around London >>than from anywhere else, and there were similar clusters around >>major conurbations. >I have a routine in the database software that ranks states, the >DC, and Canadian provinces/territories by raw sightings counts, >same over population, and same over area. This isn't on my >website yet, stay tuned. >On the same map above, compare Arizona to New Mexico. Areas are >about the same (NM slightly larger than AZ) but AZ has less than >one quarter the filtered sightings counts per 1000 population as >New Mexico. >I don't see any obvious demographic reason for this. Many years ago when I and the world were young (early 1970s) I was studing the statistical data in Project Blue Book Special Report #14. In that publication they present, without comment, a map showing the USA with grid areas which are 1 degree squares, i.e., latitude (horizontal) and longitude (vertical) lines spaced 1 degree apart. Inside each grid square they listed the number of sightings. I got it into my head that it would be "neat" to use this to correlate with the population. So I embarked on a many week long process of estimating the population in each grid square. Unfortunately, population estimates in such accessible sources as the yearly alamacs are given by county within a stae, not by 1 degree squares. So I had much pain and suffering in estimating the population in 1 degree squares from data on the population in counties. But I did it, and reasonably well, I think. Then I located all the military air bases in the USA in the 1950 time frame. Now I was able to plot the number of sightings vs population. I found negligible correlation... in fact the "noise" overwhelmed any correlation. As I recall, the mst prominent example of non- correlation was the comparison of the square with Albuquerque NM in it with Washington, DC or New York or LA, etc. (This was long before the Uintah basin sightings were collected). In this case ABQ, with an estimated 200-300,000 people had the same number or a greater number of sightings than the areas with ten times its population. I did find a sort of correlation, howver, between squares with Military Air Bases (MABs) and the nmber of sightings. The correlation was not strong, but it certainly appeared that there were more sightings in the squares with MABs than in the sightings without, regardless of the population. And one must keep in mind that many MABs were in the vicinity of large cities. This was published in a paper Scientific Investigation of Unidentified Flying Objects (an analysis of SR#14) by the Center for UFO Studies in the first and third issues of the Journal of UFO Studies.
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