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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2004 > Feb > Feb 14

Re: Off-Season UFOs - Hatch

From: Larry Hatch <larryhatch.nul>
Date: Sat, 14 Feb 2004 02:35:11 -0800
Fwd Date: Sat, 14 Feb 2004 16:28:36 -0500
Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs - Hatch


>From: Tim Shell <tshell.nul>
>To: ufoupdates.nul
>Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2004 09:53:41 -0600
>Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs

>>From: Larry Hatch <larryhatch.nul>
>>To: ufoupdates.nul
>>Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2004 00:52:14 -0800
>>Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs

>>>From: Richard Hall <hallrichard99.nul>
>>>To: ufoupdates.nul
>>>Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2004 15:47:45 +0000
>>>Subject: Re: Off-Season UFOs

<snip>

>>>A few years ago I wrote an article for International UFO
>>>Reporter studying exactly this question: What goes on in UFO
>>>sighting "troughs" (as oposed to waves). The article was
>>>available on the Center for UFO Studies web site for a long
>>>time; I haven't looked lately.

>>Hello Sir Richard!

>>I did a Google Search and found your article still up on the
>>cohenufo website! (please repair URL wrap)

>http://www.cohenufo.org/UFO%20Waves-Role%20of%20NICAP%20by%20Richard%20Hall.htm

>>Whoever or whatever is responsible for the more credible UFO
>>sightings during a wave, would presumably be doing something
>>else during a trough. I can't speculate what that might be, not
>>publicly at least. Maybe over a nice bottle of red wine. [burp!]

>It's a very impressive bit of data analysis. Has it shown any
>predictive value yet? For instance, is there a flying saucer
>that shows up at 10:15 PM every third Valentine's Day over Des
>Moines, Iowa?

>I don't know what kind of pattern analysis program would be
>necessary to find that out. I imagine something like those radio
>signal pattern detectors used by SETI. It would be fun to find
>some recurring patterns, check them against things like solar
>flares, el Nino activity, butterfly migrations, etc. Then I'd be
>ready with my good old Kodak Stereo camera.

> Fun!

Hello Tim:

Yes! It would be lots of fun to find anything with any
predictive value. I've never found anything like that, but that
doesn't make it impossible.

If I make the highly speculative presumption that 'genuine' UFOs
are driven by some high intelligence, and further that they
prefer not to interfere or make their presence known, then it
would follow that they avoid obvious periodic or repetitive
appearances. In short, there would be some randomizing factor in
their scheduling algorithms.

If one accepts all that (and I can't blame anyone who doesn't),
then the best hope would be for some overlooked flaw in their
methods. This will never be found if the data is cluttered and
masked by junk sightings which are irrelevant; thus the ad-hoc
filtration in my database.

So far, and to put it mildly, attempts to predict future waves
have been less than successful. That doesn't make them 'wrong'
necessarily.

If we can read these predictions over the Internet, so can
'they'... and probably much easier than I do after a few beers.
[burp!]

If I ever come up with something statistically interesting, good
numbers pointing to a pattern, I would have to think twice
before going online with it, for these reasons and others.


Best wishes

- Larry Hatch




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