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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2002 > Nov > Nov 29

Re: Jimmy Carter The Nobel Prize & ETs

From: Bob Young <YoungBob2.nul>
Date: Fri, 29 Nov 2002 18:05:53 EST
Archived: Fri, 29 Nov 2002 10:49:07 -0500
Subject: Re: Jimmy Carter The Nobel Prize & ETs

>From: Jerry Cohen <rjcohen.nul>
>To: ufoupdates.nul
>Date: Mon, 25 Nov 2002 09:43:13 -0500
>Subject: Re: Jimmy Carter The Nobel Prize & ETs

>>From: Bob Young <YoungBob2.nul>
>>To: ufoupdates.nul
>>Date: Thu, 21 Nov 2002 01:29:43 EST
>>Subject: Re: Jimmy Carter The Nobel Prize & ETs


>The question is: "Which science trained
>professionals with some sky observation training
>amongst us have made this mistake in a "live" visual
>sighting beside Carter. It's a meaningful question.


Actually, it probably isn't. Twenty-five years ago, Allen Hynek
published an extremely interesting examination of cases in the
U.S. Air Force's Project Blue Book files.

"Table 11.7 - Witness Reliability as a Function of Occupation"
(The Hynek UFO Report, p. 271.) presented the following
percentages of misidentifications (IFOs) for single witnesses/
multiple witnesses:

Military pilot - 88/76 percent; Commercial pilot - 89/79 percent;
Radar technician (multiple wintesses only) - 78 percent;
Technical person - 65/50 percent; Other (multiple witnesses
only) - 83 percent.

While he pointed out that "scientists and engineers", his group
of "technical" people, had the lowest number of IFOs, a close
examination of his data showed that about two-thirds of their
sightings turned out to be misidentifications of prosaic events.

In the highly charged, emotional events that we call UFO
sightings, there don't seem to be any "expert" witnesses.

This 33-year old, "second rate" (to use Don Ledger's phrase)
nocturnal light report is only still being kicked around because
the sighter is a famous person. If this is used as a criteria
for valuable UFO cases, then nailing down proof of anything
extraordinary is going to be even further away than it is now.

Imagine what will happen when Hollywood finds out about this.

Clear skies,

Bob Young

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